By 2050, more than half of seed production could be at risk

“Will there be peas on our plates in the future?” This question, with its variations on the choice of vegetables, could well replace the now obsolete question of snow at Christmas. In fact, due to the effects of climate change, many agricultural products are at risk. And, among them, seeds, the basis of all other production.

So what can we do? First, understand and analyze. Then propose solutions. This is the goal of Axa Climate, an entity created in 2019 within Axa, which today employs some 200 people, including scientists, data scientists, and consulting specialists. Although based on the Group’s insurance philosophy, this structure goes much further. Focused on climate and environmental adaptation, it aims to combine science and the field to have the greatest possible impact.

On the occasion of the Salon de l’agriculture 2024, Axa Climate unveiled a ground-breaking study on seeds, carried out in partnership with Semae, the seeds and plants interprofession. The conclusions, based on IPCC data and vulnerability indicators, are alarming to say the least. And even then, they only take into account climate change, without including the appearance of new diseases or pests – or, for that matter, changes in regulations or agricultural practices.

Generally speaking, according to scientific projections, by 2030, France will be experiencing more extreme climatic conditions, albeit heterogeneous.

Temperatures will rise (by +1.1°C), with results varying widely from one region to another: from +0.7°C in Finistère to +1.3°C in Drôme, Var or Aude, and depending on the time of year: +0.5°C in winter and up to +1.6°C in summer. While winters will be milder, extreme minimum temperatures will remain low, and the risk of spring frosts will persist. Moreover, in summer, temperatures will more frequently be extreme. For example, in July in the Drôme region, the 37°C temperature, which has historically been exceeded one year in ten, will be exceeded every two years in 2030.

Additionally, while rainfall is expected to increase in winter, it is anticipated sharply decrease in summer. In the South-West and Brittany, from May to August, rainfall could decrease by 70 mm and more than 80 mm respectively.

The greatest risk: lack of water

Consequently, the study considers that the risk concerning water availability at critical times for seed crops is the most worrying – more so than the risk linked to excessive summer heat. Both risks are forecasted to increase by some 40% between now and 2030.
By 2050, more than half (60%) of the 380,000 hectares currently devoted to seed production will be subject to strong or extreme risk (compared with 27% today). Finally, at the same date, 10% of the total surface area devoted to seeds will no longer be able to be cultivated with the same species as today.

So much for the urgency of the situation. How can France hope to remain the world’s leading exporter of agricultural seeds (with half of its production sold internationally)? And what will become of this industry of excellence, with annual sales of almost 4 billion euros, 18,000 seed multipliers and over 10,000 jobs? Worse still, “without adjustments to farming practices and the characteristics of cultivated varieties, French sovereignty in the production of certain seeds would become more difficult to ensure”, the study soberly concludes.

A single watchword: anticipation

Seed growers, multiplier farmers, industrial fruit and vegetable producers, market gardeners, cereal growers and even livestock breeders are working hard to anticipate and thwart the looming threat. In the wake of these studies, Axa Climate has just launched a digital platform, Altitude Agriculture, the first to quantify the impact of climate change on agricultural production, to support players in their adaptation strategies.

They have already got hold of it. “The seeds and seedlings interprofession decided to equip itself with a reliable analysis tool to enable the implementation of appropriate strategic thinking to mitigate or circumvent the risks measured, and thus enable the industry and its players to anticipate and adapt seed production and guide varietal research”, explains Franck Prunus, Director of Industry Services at Semae.

Some companies also do this on an individual basis. Or, as in the case of Bonduelle, have even participated in its development. “As early as 2015, we realized that for pea production in the Hauts-de-France region, we were no longer able to meet our quality and quantity targets due to climate disruption,” explains Arnaud Bardon Debats, Bonduelle’s agronomic performance director.

After several campaigns falling short of targets, he first commissioned a specific study in 2021 from Axa Climate teams on pea cultivation in northern France. “This enabled us to identify which climatic sequences were unfavorable for peas, to project climatic changes from one area to another by 2030 and 2050, and to launch adaptation initiatives for the areas concerned, notably by shifting production periods. More generally, the study made us aware of elements that were interacting but that we didn’t know about”, he says.

Next, Bonduelle and Axa Climate teams co-constructed the Altitude Agriculture platform, which covers 18 crops and 30 different zones in France.

“This is a real decision-making tool, since it quantifies the climatic risk weighing on agricultural production for the 2030 and 2050 horizons, taking into account the specific local features of the farm, and the typology of soils and crops. In particular, it enables us to anticipate water requirements, measure the impact of water stress and specific climatic hazards on yields, and test different adaptation scenarios”, explains Lucile Dauger, agronomist and agri-cultural transition specialist at Axa Climate.

In addition, the platform simulates yield variation and the farmer’s financial margin, depending on the adaptation scenario, and is capable of projecting optimal rotations in a future climate context.

Highly accurate, calibrated for most crops – industrial or market vegetables, cereal field crops, beet, vines – as well as for livestock, depending on geographical zones and other specific elements (nature and health of the soil, etc.), the tool “enables farmers to precisely measure their farm’s exposure to climate risk and to simulate different adaptation measures in order to identify the strategy that seems most optimal to them”, it adds. All this for an annual subscription fee that varies according to the scope of needs, and ranges from 10,000 to 100,000 euros.

Adaptation measures

For seed companies, adaptation measures may include the use of new varieties, notably those derived from New Breeding Techniques, to ensure that the seed supply is more resistant to the effects of climate disruption. For multipliers, it will mean choosing new areas, which until now have been less suitable for their activity, but which will become so in the future.

For Bonduelle pea growers, this may mean sowing earlier or later, or even, in future, at two times of the year: in spring for the traditional autumn harvest, but also in autumn, as the winter will be less harsh, for a spring harvest, or adopting seed varieties currently used in southern Europe. Not to mention new cropping practices, including crop rotation, optimized irrigation, improved soil quality.

“Businesses and farms will only remain insurable if they are resilient, and to do that, they need to adapt,” concludes Antoine Denoix, CEO of Axa Climate. “They must not wait for the insurer to give them the signal to adapt, but do it today.”